Published

• The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: A natural experiment in reunified Germany (with Maxim Pinkovskiy). Blog post at Voxeu.org. Blog post at Liberty Street Economics. CEPR Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers. Forthcoming, Econometrics Journal, 2021
• Holding on? Ethnic divisions, political institutions and the duration of economic declines (with K. Thomsson). Journal of Development Economics, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102457.
• Fueling conflict? (De)Escalation and bilateral aid (with M. Gassebner, P. Schaudt and S. Langlotz). Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020. doi: 10.1002/jae.2797.
• Do weak institutions prolong crises? On the identification, characteristics, and duration of declines during economic slumps (with D. de Crombrugghe and A. Szirmai), World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 34(3), 2020. doi: 10.1093/wber/lhz015.
• Poverty accounting (with D. de Crombrugghe and A. Szirmai), European Economic Review, Vol. 104, 2018. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.03.003
  
• The dynamics of stagnation (with D. de Crombrugghe and A. Szirmai), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 20(8), 2016. (link to gated version).

Under review or in revision

• Top lights: Bright cities and their contribution to economic development (with M. Krause). R&R at the Journal of Development Economics
  
• Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries (with A. Dreher,  A. Fuchs, B. Parks, A. Strange, and M. Tierney). CEPR Working Paper. Interactive feature. Blog post. China project data. Media coverage: Washington Post Monkey Cage. New York Times. National Public Radio (NPR). Brookings. CGD.
• California’s COVID-19 economic shutdown reveals the fingerprint of systemic environmental racism (with Jennifer Burney, Susanne Benz, Kyle Hemes, Morgan Levy, Pascal Polonik, Katharine Ricke and Luke Sanford).

Papers in preparation

• The political geography of cities (with C. Lessmann and P. Schaudt).
• The undivided rule: Colonial structures, local majorities, and economic development (with R. Hodler and P. Schaudt).
• Ethnofederalism and ethnic voting: Evidence from Kenya (with R. Hodler and P. Schaudt).
• Nighttime lights and measurement errors in subnational accounts (with G. McCord).
• The Emergency: The long-term effects of British labor camps in Kenya (with G. Asmus and T. Korn).
• Triggering unrest? Ethnic inequality and droughts in Africa (with M. H. L. Wong).
• Growth and spatial inequalities (with M. Krause and C. Lessmann).

Miscellaneous

• fhetprob: A fast QMLE Stata routine for fractional probit models with multiplicative heteroskedasticity, retired background paper

Policy reports

• Income inequality and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa (with D. de Crombrugghe and A. Fosu). 2016.  EU – DG DEVCO report.
• Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda (with D. de Crombrugghe and A. Szirmai). In: Haddad, L., Kato, H., & Meisel, N. (2015). Growth is Dead, Long Live Growth: The Quality of Economic Growth and Why it Matters. Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tokyo, Japan.

For most papers I am implementing a new method, adapting an old one or implementing other econometrically interesting things. My plan is to eventually post the most exciting bits either as code-snippets, fully-fledged Stata programs, or R functions under the heading “Data & Code”. There you can also find the data sets used in my published papers.